[EXTERNAL] [IMPROVEDX] quick ?

Alan Morris Alan.Morris at IMAIL.ORG
Thu Apr 24 13:10:26 UTC 2014


Ted Palen’s comment is true, I believe, for almost all medical interactions.  The exception is provided by detailed computer protocol (eProtocol use – they function like an autopilot does for an airplane, giving specific instructions for patient management but allowing the physician to override, just as a pilot can.  Bot the autopilot and the eProtocols provide context-sensitive(9patient specific or personalized) instructions.  The eProtocols capture the reasons for which physicians decline the eProtocol instructions (about 4% of the time).  Extension of an eProtocol strategy would ameliorate the dilemma described by Dr. Palen.
Have  a nice day.

Alan H. Morris, M.D.
Professor of Medicine
Adjunct Prof. of Medical Informatics
University of Utah

Director of Research
Director Urban Central Region Blood Gas and Pulmonary Laboratories
Pulmonary/Critical Care Division
Sorenson Heart & Lung Center - 6th Floor
Intermountain Medical Center
5121 South Cottonwood Street
Murray, Utah  84157-7000, USA

Office Phone: 801-507-4603
Mobile Phone: 801-718-1283
Fax: 801-507-4699
e-mail: alan.morris at imail.org
e-mail: alanhmorris at gmail.com

From: "Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG<mailto:Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG>" <Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG<mailto:Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG>>
Reply-To: Society to Improve Diagnosis in Medicine <IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG<mailto:IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG>>, "Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG<mailto:Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG>" <Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG<mailto:Ted.E.Palen at KP.ORG>>
Date: Wednesday, April 23, 2014 at 2:54 PM
To: "IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG<mailto:IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG>" <IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG<mailto:IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG>>
Subject: Re: [IMPROVEDX] [EXTERNAL] [IMPROVEDX] quick ?

Hi all
It is very hard if not impossible to know the "true diagnostic error rate."  That is because we will never know the true numerator. Patients are lost to follow-up, do not report back if symptoms resolve but the original diagnosis was wrong, or signs and symptoms persist and present as different diagnosis and if they see a different physician without prior information may never know a previous diagnosis was made.  Therefore, we will never know the true number of diagnostic errors.

Ted E. Palen, PhD MD, MSPH | Physician Investigator | Institute for Health Research | Kaiser Permanente Colorado
Physician Manager for Clinical Reporting | Medical Cost Management| Colorado Permanente Medical Group
• 303-614-1215 | 7 303-614-1305 | •ted.e.palen at kp.org<mailto:sarah.madrid at kp.org>

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From:        Ross Koppel <rkoppel at SAS.UPENN.EDU<mailto:rkoppel at SAS.UPENN.EDU>>
To:        IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG<mailto:IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG>
Date:        04/23/2014 01:04 PM
Subject:        Re: [IMPROVEDX] [EXTERNAL] [IMPROVEDX] quick ?

________________________________



First, I want to second Mark's comment.  It very much depends on the
methodology used.  Hardeep's methodology (as all methods) is limited to
the parameters he used (charts, return visits, etc).  While fine
research (he's one of my heroes), it cannot be representative of the
larger error rate, which would have to reflect the conditions that were
unknown and did not appear in charts or in subsequent revisits or
re-admits. I don't know what that ratio is, but it's non-trivial.  Very
non-trivial.  Then, of course, as has been argued here, there's the
definition of Dx error.  If it's delayed to the point that something
could have been done but was not, that's different than if it took a few
years but made no difference.

Ross

Ross Koppel, Ph.D. FACMI
Sociology Dept and Sch. of Medicine
Senior Fellow, LDI, Wharton
University of Pennsylvania, Phila, PA 19104-6299
215 576 8221 C: 215 518 0134

On 4/23/2014 1:32 PM, Graber, Mark wrote:
> Stephen,
>
> We (I) believe the risk of diagnostic error in general medical settings in the US is in the range of 10 - 15%  (Graber.  The Incidence of Diagnostic Error in Medicine;  BMJ Qual Saf 2013;22:ii21-ii27. doi:10.1136/bmjqs-2012-001615).  That's all errors, most of which (thankfully) are inconsequential or caught.  The risk of harm is clearly much less and its hard to put a number on that.
>
> The news stories centered on Hardeep's recent article  ( The frequency of diagnostic errors in outpatient care: estimations from three large observational studies
> involving US adult populations.  Singh H, et al. BMJ Qual Saf 2014;0:1-5. doi:10.1136/bmjqs-2013-002627) where they identified a risk of approximately 5% from chart reviews in primary care clinics.  That number is in the 10-15% ballpark, given that the approach would have missed errors that weren't obvious from the medical record, and errors for which the consequences played out elsewhere, and other methodologic issues.
>
> All of these numbers are based on research approaches.  So far, there aren't any healthcare organizations I know of that are measuring error rates in real time, and the challenges of actually doing this are substantial.  We have little data on the error rate for surgical patients, or patients seen in the ER.  There is a great need for research on this question, and for finding reliable and reproducible ways to find and count these errors going forward.  You can't improve what you can't measure.
>
> Mark
>
> Mark L Graber, MD FACP
> Senior Fellow, RTI International
> Professor Emeritus, SUNY Stony Brook School of Medicine
> Founder and President, Society to Improve Diagnosis in Medicine
> Phone:   919 990-8497
>

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