What is the correct method of diagnosis

Jain, Bimal P.,M.D. BJAIN at PARTNERS.ORG
Wed Nov 1 10:46:17 UTC 2017


As the prescribed Bayesian method does not appear to be employed for diagnosis in practice in CPCs and clinical problem solving exercises, it is not clear what the correct method of diagnosis is. I investigate this issue in my attached paper and conclude that the probability based Bayesian method is not correct as a probability fails to represent evidence for a disease in a given, individual patient in whom diagnosis is being performed.
The correct method is the one which is employed in CPCs and clinical problem solving exercises. It consists of formulating a suspected disease as a diagnostic hypothesis and confirming ( or disproving ) it by evidence in the form of a likelihood ratio.
Please review and comment on this paper.
Thanks.

Bimal

Bimal P Jain MD
Northshore Medical Center
Lynn MA 01904


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