UNBOUNDED VERSUS BOUNDED ( ECOLOGICAL ) RATIONALITY IN DIAGNOSIS

Jain, Bimal P.,M.D. BJAIN at PARTNERS.ORG
Tue Nov 14 18:00:52 UTC 2017


In this short , attached paper, I point out that the Bayesian method, in which probability is evidence, has been prescribed as the method of diagnosis due to the unbounded rationality of this method for inference of any uncertain event.
But we find this method is not employed for diagnosis in practice because it fails to achieve our goal in diagnosis of accurate determination of a disease in a given, individual patient and is therefore not ecologically rational.
The method that is employed in practice consists of hypothesis generation and confirmation which achieves the goal of accuracy in a given, individual patient and is thus ecologically rational.

We suggest that the prescription of the Bayesian method be replaced by the ecologically rational method of hypothesis generation and confirmation as long as our goal in diagnosis remains accuracy in a given, individual patient.

Please review and comment on this paper.

Thanks.

Bimal

Bimal P Jain MD
Northshore Medical Center
Lynn MA 01907.


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