A discussion about application of Bayes' theorem to diagnosis
blatino at RELIABILITY.COM
Wed Jan 3 12:21:35 UTC 2018
Thank you Dr. Bimal
This is helpful for me as a layman to understand traditional Bayes Theorem.
I think your argument applies to what I see in many HC related investigations of past undesirable outcomes. When hypotheses are developed about how certain facts came to be, many in HC seem inclined to use a 'literature search' as a valid form of evidence to support any given hypotheses.
To me, a literature search merely provides an average of the experience of a population of others, and cannot confirm or refute the hypotheses in a single undesirable outcome (the focus of an investigation). I can't see going to court and having my evidence be literature search results showing that in 7 out of 10 people, this XX was found to be a contributing factor. Whatever the literature search revealed as a higher probability would still have to be validated that in this specific case, that it did indeed contribute to the bad outcome.
Not sure it's a like-for-like analogy, but in my world it appears to be:-)
Thanks for helping me clarify how Bayes Theorem works in theory and application.
Robert J. Latino, CEO
Reliability Center, Inc.
blatino at reliability.com
[linkedin logo signature file]<https://www.linkedin.com/company/958495?trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical%3Acompany%2CclickedEntityId%3A958495%2Cidx%3A1-1-1%2CtarId%3A1464096807851%2Ctas%3Areliability%20center%2C%20inc.>
From: Jain, Bimal P.,M.D. [mailto:BJAIN at PARTNERS.ORG]
Sent: Tuesday, January 02, 2018 1:10 PM
To: IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG
Subject: [IMPROVEDX] A discussion about application of Bayes' theorem to diagnosis
In this attached paper, I discuss application of Bayes 'theorem, as a mathematical relationship, to diagnosis, which is a process in the real world. This application is not correct, I argue, because the mathematical term, probability, does not correspond to evidence during diagnosis.
Please review and comment on this paper.
Bimal P Jain MD
Northshore Medical Center
Lynn MA 01904.
The information in this e-mail is intended only for the person to whom it is
addressed. If you believe this e-mail was sent to you in error and the e-mail
contains patient information, please contact the Partners Compliance HelpLine at
http://www.partners.org/complianceline . If the e-mail was sent to you in error
but does not contain patient information, please contact the sender and properly
dispose of the e-mail.
Address messages to: IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG<mailto:IMPROVEDX at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG>
To unsubscribe from IMPROVEDX: click the following link:
or send email to: IMPROVEDX-SIGNOFF-REQUEST at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG<mailto:IMPROVEDX-SIGNOFF-REQUEST at LIST.IMPROVEDIAGNOSIS.ORG>
Visit the searchable archives or adjust your subscription at: http://list.improvediagnosis.org/scripts/wa-IMPDIAG.exe?INDEX
Moderator:David Meyers, Board Member, Society for Improving Diagnosis in Medicine
To learn more about SIDM visit:
Moderator: David Meyers, Board Member, Society to Improve Diagnosis in Medicine
Size: 17486 bytes
More information about the Test