The dual role of probability in application as chance and evidence' implications for diagnosis

Nick Rainey nickraineydpt at GMAIL.COM
Wed Mar 7 03:57:27 UTC 2018


I definitely agree that each patient needs to be looked at individually.
Being right 98% of the time in many cases is not good enough. In my
opinion, however, without considering the probability of a diagnosis the
forest can be missed and all we see are trees.


--
Nick Rainey
520-955-1820

On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 8:04 AM, Jain, Bimal P.,M.D. <BJAIN at partners.org>
wrote:

> In this attached paper, I point out that probability plays a dual role in
> application as chance in referring to an outcome in an individual instance
> and as evidence in referring to outcomes in a population of instances. Thus
> it is not able to represent evidence in a given patient during diagnosis
> and is not suitable for it in practice.
>
> Please review and comment on this paper.
>
> Thanks
>
>
>
> Bimal
>
>
>
> Bimal P Jain MD
>
> Northshore Medical Center
>
> Lynn MA 01904
>
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