The dual role of probability in application as chance and evidence' implications for diagnosis

Tom Benzoni benzonit at GMAIL.COM
Wed Mar 7 13:24:35 UTC 2018


Nick:

You pose an interesting thought that the group may want to consider; it
could be a critical concept.
Consider incremental cost or effort.
What is the incremental cost for getting from 10 to 12%; the same as 98 to
100%? Seems it should be, which is what makes the question interesting.
I'll leave that for discussion.

Tom


On Tuesday, March 6, 2018, Nick Rainey <nickraineydpt at gmail.com> wrote:

> I definitely agree that each patient needs to be looked at individually.
> Being right 98% of the time in many cases is not good enough. In my
> opinion, however, without considering the probability of a diagnosis the
> forest can be missed and all we see are trees.
>
>
> --
> Nick Rainey
> 520-955-1820
>
> On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 8:04 AM, Jain, Bimal P.,M.D. <BJAIN at partners.org>
> wrote:
>
>> In this attached paper, I point out that probability plays a dual role in
>> application as chance in referring to an outcome in an individual instance
>> and as evidence in referring to outcomes in a population of instances. Thus
>> it is not able to represent evidence in a given patient during diagnosis
>> and is not suitable for it in practice.
>>
>> Please review and comment on this paper.
>>
>> Thanks
>>
>>
>>
>> Bimal
>>
>>
>>
>> Bimal P Jain MD
>>
>> Northshore Medical Center
>>
>> Lynn MA 01904
>>
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