Comparison of role of probability in inference in life insurance and in diagnosis with examples

Jain, Bimal P.,M.D. BJAIN at PARTNERS.ORG
Wed May 9 11:25:43 UTC 2018


In this attached paper, I compare the role of probability in inference in life insurance and in diagnosis with examples.
I find probability, which is a frequency in a population, plays a key role in inference in life insurance only in which the goal is long run accuracy in a group of similar persons and not accuracy in a given, individual person.
On the other hand, I find probability does not play any significant role in inference in diagnosis in which the goal is not long run accuracy but accuracy in a given, individual patient.
In diagnosis, the method of inference consists of hypothesis generation and verification including creation of differential diagnosis.
Please review and comment on this paper.

Thanks.

Bimal

Bimal P Jain MD
Northshore Medical Center
Lynn MA 01904.




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